Category: Sports
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AFL Round 1 Recap
The first weekend of the Allianz Football League is in the books and it’s time to see how my predictions did. Here they are: Kerry (2-8) v Derry (0-15) – My Elo model had this game as a toss-up, as Kerry came in with an Elo of 1635 while Derry entered with a 1633. Each…
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My GAA Senior Football Ratings Methodology
With the onset of the Allianz Football League, I’m back to rating & modeling the Senior County Football teams for this 2024 season. This year, I’d like to continue my ratings and predictions all the way through the All-Ireland championship, time and other commitments permitting. I previously wrote about my methodology for developing my ratings…
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Gaelic Football is Back!
The 2024 edition of the Allianz Football League kicks off this weekend, with games being played on the 27th and 28th of January. Last year, I started tracking match results for Senior County Gaelic Football clubs and developing Elo ratings for the teams, using 538’s methodology as a guide. The tracking fell off during the…
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The New GAA Elo Rating Dashboard
I’ve spent the last week or so doing a complete revamp of how I create GAA Senior County football club ratings and match predictions. I’ve also been working on developing attack and defense ratings for each club. It’s been an exciting project to work on and more tuning is definitely needed. But I’m pretty happy…
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Another Look at Justin Steele’s 2023 Pitches by Run Value
Last week, I wrote about how Justin Steele’s 4-seam fastball has been his most effective pitch so far this season based on its overall Run Value. While his fastball isn’t overpowering and he’s not blowing that pitch by batters anytime soon, Steele’s been seeing a lot more success with his 4-seamer this season than his…
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Justin Steele’s Fastball Has Been His Most Effective Pitch
Justin Steele is quietly having one of the best starts of any pitcher to the 2023 MLB season. Granted, I unfortunately cannot follow all the goings-on in baseball, so I say quietly because he’s 6-0, sports a 1.82 ERA, and has gone 14 straight starts without allowing more than 2 earned runs, and I don’t…
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Tailteann Cup Round 1 Preview
The first round of the Tailteann Cup is next week, but it’s never too early to take a quick peak at some of the match-ups. Cavan comes into the Cup as the highest rated team in my Ratings at 1535 with London and Waterford at the ladder’s bottom rung, both at 1433. 2 matches feature…
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GAA Weekend Preview
This coming weekend is chock-full of some great Senior Football Championship matches! First up on the docket is New York taking on Sligo at Markievicz Park. New York is fresh off their historic win against Leitrim two weeks ago but face a strong opponent in Sligo. I currently have Sligo with a 57% chance of…
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This Past GAA Weekend Had a Pretty Impressive Upset
There were 9 GAA matches this past weekend, but one match stood out for a pretty unexpected outcome. Roscommon faced off against Mayo on Easter Sunday, needing their own sort of Easter miracle to pull out a win. My Elo model had a 73% chance of a Mayo victory as well as a 169 Elo…
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Rating and Modeling Gaelic Football Teams
Using Elo ratings to find the powerhouses of Gaelic Football at the Senior County Level