The first weekend of the Allianz Football League is in the books and it’s time to see how my predictions did. Here they are:
Kerry (2-8) v Derry (0-15) – My Elo model had this game as a toss-up, as Kerry came in with an Elo of 1635 while Derry entered with a 1633. Each squad had a 50% chance of victory in this match but Derry ended up the victor by 1 point. Kerry lost 7 Elo points and Derry gained 7, putting Kerry at 1628 and Derry at 1640 heading into Round 2.
Dublin (1-14) v Monaghan (3-9) – Dublin entered this campaign as the big dog with an Elo of 1687, while Monaghan came into this match sitting at 1512. Because of this wide Elo difference, Dublin entered with a 73% of victory but Monaghan came out victorious in an upset. Monaghan’s new Elo heading into Round 2 is 1522 while Dublin drops to 1678.
Meath (0-12) v Fermanagh (1-9) – This match ended tied though Meath were the favorites, with a 57% chance of victory. The tie means their Elo ratings remain the same going into next week, with Meath sitting at 1534 and Fermanagh at 1485.
Kildare (0-12) v Cavan (0-16) – Cavan entered this match with a 58% chance of victory and came out on top, bumping their Elo rating up from 1572 to 1585. Kildare, meanwhile, drops down to 1500, putting them right at the average mark.
Armagh (0-12) v Louth (0-11) – Armagh was favored by my Elo model and came out on top by a point. They gained 6 Elo points, putting them at 1562, while Louth dropped to 1495.
Laois (1-12) v Longford (2-7) – Despite one more goal than their opponent, Longford came out the losers in this match. Laois were favored 59%-41% and saw their Elo rise 9 points, up to 1489. Longford now sits at 1411.
Tipperary (1-14) v Carlow (3-10) – One of the closer matches based on Elo, Carlow came out on top, seeing a 10 point Elo bump with the victory and now sit at 1430. Tipperary now sits below the 1400 mark at 1397.
Galway (0-10) v Mayo (2-12) – Mayo comes away with a solid win by 8 points, despite being a 10% underdog against Galway. Mayo also receives a pretty massive boost in their Elo rating, jumping from 1581 to 1604. Galway drops from 1613 to 1589.
Tyrone (0-17) v Roscommon (1-11) – Another underdog victory in this match. Tyrone came into this fixture with a 46% chance of victory but pulls out the win without scoring a goal. They gain 15 points in their Elo rating and now sit at 1547, while Roscommon falls to 1543.
Donegal (1-20) v Cork (2-6) – Donegal seemingly couldn’t miss, scoring a massive victory over Cork despite only having a 41% chance of victory. Cork’s new Elo sits at 1505 while Donegal jumps to 1496.
Limerick (2-7) v Antrim (2-14) – Antrim entered this match with a 60% win probability and came out on top by 7 points. With the win, Antrim joins the 1500 Elo Club and has a new rating of 1512, while Limerick drops to 1409.
Wicklow (0-13) v Down (0-18) – Down comes away the victor in this match and sees their Elo jump from 1537 to 1551. Wicklow drops from 1461 to 1448.
Offaly (0-10) v Westmeath (1-11) – Westmeath wins this one by 4 points overall, having had a 59% chance of victory heading into the fixture. Offaly’s Elo rating now sits at 1464, down from 1477, while Westmeath jumps from 1538 to 1551.
Clare (0-9) v Sligo (1-5) – A low-scoring affair, as neither team cracks double digits. Clare comes out on top by a point despite being the underdog and gets an 8 point rating boost to 1471 while Sligo dips to 1510.
London (1-9) v Wexford (1-13) – Wexford came in as the favorites in this match and didn’t disappoint, carrying the day. London’s new rating now sits at 1366 and Wexford jumps to 1474.
Waterford (1-5) v Leitrim (2-17) – An absolute pasting by Leitrim as they easily handle the lowest rated squad. Leitrim gains almost 20 Elo points and now head into Week 2 at 1478 while Waterford are at 1331.
Elo Model Performance Week 1 (Correct-Wrong-Tie): 9-6-1
My Elo predictions were off in 5 games. I had Dublin, Meath, Galway, Roscommon, Cork, and Sligo all favored in their fixtures in Week 1, and they all lost. The “tie” comes from the Kerry v Derry match, which had both teams at a 50% chance of a victory. In the future I may try to figure out a way to avoid coin-flip predictions like that.
Here are the updated rankings heading into Week 2, along with each team’s Elo differential:
| Team | Week 1 Starting Elo | Week 1 Ending Elo | Elo +/- |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dublin | 1688 | 1678 | -9 |
| Derry | 1633 | 1640 | +7 |
| Kerry | 1635 | 1628 | -7 |
| Mayo | 1581 | 1605 | +24 |
| Galway | 1613 | 1590 | -24 |
| Cavan | 1572 | 1585 | +13 |
| Armagh | 1557 | 1563 | +6 |
| Westmeath | 1539 | 1552 | +13 |
| Down | 1538 | 1551 | +14 |
| Tyrone | 1532 | 1547 | +15 |
| Roscommon | 1558 | 1543 | -15 |
| Meath | 1535 | 1535 | 0 |
| Monaghan | 1513 | 1522 | +9 |
| Antrim | 1496 | 1512 | +16 |
| Sligo | 1518 | 1511 | -8 |
| Cork | 1534 | 1506 | -29 |
| Kildare | 1514 | 1501 | -13 |
| Donegal | 1468 | 1497 | +29 |
| Louth | 1501 | 1495 | -6 |
| Laois | 1481 | 1489 | +9 |
| Fermanagh | 1485 | 1485 | 0 |
| Leitrim | 1460 | 1478 | +18 |
| Wexford | 1463 | 1474 | +11 |
| Clare | 1463 | 1471 | +8 |
| Offaly | 1477 | 1464 | -13 |
| Wicklow | 1462 | 1448 | -14 |
| Carlow | 1420 | 1431 | +11 |
| Longford | 1420 | 1411 | -9 |
| Limerick | 1425 | 1409 | -16 |
| Tipperary | 1408 | 1397 | -11 |
| London | 1366 | 1355 | -11 |
| Waterford | 1350 | 1332 | -18 |
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